Identifying Risk Conditions for FireBlight Infection using Artificial Neural Networks based on rare events Conference Paper uri icon


  • Conditions for the infection of apple and pear by Erwinia amylovora, the causal agent of FireBlight, were investigated and modeled by plant pathologists in different places in the world. Examples include: MARYBLYT (Steiner & Lightner, 1996), BIS95 (Billing, 1996), FBCA (Shtienberg et al, 1998). Interestingly, the outputs of these models, which are targeted to predict disease risk, even based on same data, are different. Recently, fire-blight appeared on a few infected trees in Trentino, Italy. An attempt to identify dates and sites with high disease infection probability, based on known models developed in other places (Maryblyt, Bis95, FBCA) resulted in low estimation accuracy of the true events. Evidently, the models do not sufficiently consider the particularity of the region nor can they consider other factors such as the inoculum's distribution. Therefore an innovative approach was …

publication date

  • January 1, 2006