Climate change forecasts, long-term spatio-temporal prediction and the resilience of dry ecosystems Conference Paper uri icon


  • Primary production is an important indicator to climatic changes in drylands, while reduction in productivity has many consequences on ecosystem functioning. We suggest that the response of dry ecosystems to climate change should lead to a change in spatial patterns of grasses without a substantial change in ecosystem resilience. We used field data and a recently published spatio-temporally explicit model to study factors affecting long-term variation in primary production in two dry ecosystems: semi-arid (SAE) and Mediterranean (DME) dominated by annual vegetation. The model was operated in both patch and landscape scales and was executed along 30 years (1979-2008) at SAE and along 21 years (1986-1990; 1993-2008) at DME. Model predictions were validated against samples that were harvested in each site at the end of the growing season, over 15 seasons (1994 …

publication date

  • January 1, 2010